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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Jose +135 over Edmonton 

4 PM EST Backing San Jose  at home is a value-driven position based on market inflation rather than surface-level momentum. Edmonton’s 8-1 blowout of Los Angeles will naturally attract public money, but that result snapped a four-game skid and doesn’t erase broader inconsistency. The Edmonton Oilers have struggled in the favorite role recently, losing four of their last five when laying juice and failing to cover the puck line in 11 of their last 13 day games. When a team with defensive volatility and goaltending uncertainty is priced aggressively because of star power, that creates opportunity on the other side — especially against a capable home underdog.

San Jose’s recent five-game losing streak actually strengthens the value case. The Sharks have been far more competitive at SAP Center than their overall slide suggests, posting a strong record in one-goal games and consistently responding well after losses in the home underdog role. Offensively, they’re producing over three goals per game, with Macklin Celebrini driving a dynamic top line and multiple secondary contributors adding balance. Edmonton’s elite power play is dangerous, but at even strength the Oilers have been far less dominant, and their team save percentage under .880 leaves the door open for high-variance swings. If this game stays at five-on-five for extended stretches, San Jose has more than enough offensive punch to trade chances.

From a pricing perspective, this is about buying low and selling high. Edmonton’s star duo headlines the matchup, but the Sharks already pushed them to overtime in the previous meeting and have shown the ability to dictate tempo in this building. San Jose has won each of its last six games as a home underdog following a loss and continues to cover in this role because the market undervalues their offensive ceiling. With Edmonton still conceding nearly as many goals as it scores at even strength and showing inconsistency in net, the underdog offers the stronger risk-reward profile. In a matchup where the favorite carries public momentum but defensive flaws remain, San Jose to win outright is the sharper value play.

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