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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit +150 over Carolina

7 PM EST Backing  Detroit in this matchup is about recognizing value in a number shaded heavily toward home-ice dominance. Carolina’s overall record and strong home mark will naturally draw public money, but Detroit’s profile is far more competitive than the line suggests. The Red Wings sit at 34-19-6, have been excellent on the road (16-9-4), and carry a near break-even goal differential despite playing in one of the league’s tougher divisions. They’ve already beaten the Carolina Hurricanes this season, and they’ve shown the ability to dictate early pace in this head-to-head series, winning the first period in four straight meetings. When a road team with this level of consistency is priced as a clear underdog, that’s where betting value begins to surface.

Detroit’s defensive structure and goaltending give them a legitimate path to another upset. John Gibson has provided stability in net and just turned aside 26 of 27 shots in an overtime road win against Ottawa. On the season, the Wings are allowing just under three goals per game, and over their last 10 contests they’ve tightened that number even further. Carolina, while riding a winning streak, has been involved in several tight games and continues to rely on offensive depth rather than shutdown defense. The Hurricanes average 3.5 goals over their last 10, but Detroit is conceding only 2.3 in that same stretch. In a matchup where margins are likely to be thin, the team offering plus-money value with comparable defensive metrics deserves strong consideration.

Situational angles also lean toward Detroit. The Red Wings have won three of their last four as road underdogs, and the road team has covered the puck line in nine of Detroit’s last 10 games overall. Meanwhile, Carolina has struggled to reward bettors at home, failing to cover the puck line in six straight at Lenovo Center. The Hurricanes are undeniably strong, but the market is pricing them at peak form. Detroit brings balanced scoring, a capable power play, and goaltending that can steal tight games — exactly the profile you want when backing an underdog outright. With recent head-to-head success and strong road results, the value lies with Detroit to win again.

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