Pinnacle   -1½ +160    BET365  -1½ +160  Sportsinteraction  -1½ +160  888port  -1½ +160

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Ottawa -1½ +160 over Philadelphia

Canadian Tire Centre - Ottawa, ON

7:00 PM ET. Regulation only. You can see the temptation here. The Flyers have won three of four, they’re scoring goals, and Owen Tippett looks like a reincarnated Mike Bossy in orange and black. On the surface, it looks like a team “finding its rhythm.” Underneath, it’s a house of cards built on shooting luck, home-ice bounces, and a brutal schedule spot being overlooked by the market.

Philadelphia just wrapped up a cushy four-game homestand, where every bounce seemed to find the right stick. They now hit the road for the first time in 10 days — against a Senators team that’s far better than its 2-4-1 record suggests. The Flyers haven’t won a game away from home this season, and we’re not buying that changes here against a team that’s been living in the offensive zone without the results to show for it.

Ottawa is coming off an overtime loss to Edmonton where they absolutely tilted the ice for long stretches. Down 2-0 in the third, they came back with relentless pressure, outshot the Oilers 15-5 in the frame, and tied it before losing in extra time. That’s not a bad team; that’s a team playing the right way and waiting for variance to flip. Thomas Chabot said it himself: “We saw the Ottawa Senators tonight.” They looked like a group that knows they’re close.

This price on the puck line screams buy-low. The Sens have been stung by poor finishing and unsustainable goaltending swings. Their expected goal numbers tell a much different story — they’re controlling play, generating quality looks, and are due for a correction. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has scored five or more in three of their last four despite ranking bottom-10 in high-danger chances. Regression’s coming, and it’s likely to hit them square in the face on the road against a desperate opponent.

The Flyers are getting credit for beating up on the Kraken and catching tired opponents. Tippett’s heater isn’t going to last forever, and Carter Hart’s replacement-level goaltending behind a blue line still bleeding odd-man rushes is not a formula for road success. Sens by a margin is our call.

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