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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +100 over Montreal

Scotia Bank Saddledom - Calgary, AB

8:30 PM ET. OT included. The Canadiens are feeling pretty good about themselves after a cozy little homestand in which everything went their way. They got soft opponents, timely goals, and a goalie (Dobes) who looked like Patrick Roy for a week. Now they pack up that good feeling, head west, and walk right into a bad spot. Montreal has been thriving in its own building, feeding off the crowd and momentum, but road games—especially in Western barns—have a way of humbling teams that start believing their own press.

Calgary’s record looks ugly, no question. They’ve lost six straight and haven’t scored more than two goals in any of their last five. That’s usually the point where the market completely abandons a team, which is exactly when we start to get interested. The Flames’ effort level hasn’t been the issue—it’s been finishing. They’re generating looks, cycling hard, and getting zone time. The puck just isn’t going in. Those stretches don’t last forever, and the numbers suggest some serious positive regression is on deck.

This is also one of those “eye-test lies” games. Montreal’s been opportunistic, not dominant. They were outplayed for stretches in all three of their last wins, including against a Buffalo team that looked half-interested. The Canadiens are about to step into a much different atmosphere. Calgary is desperate, they’ve had two days to stew on another close loss, and the Saddledome crowd is ready to explode if this team gives them a reason.

Ryan Huska hasn’t lost the room—far from it. The players know they’re better than the record shows, and all it’s going to take is one night where a few of those posts turn into goals to flip the narrative. Montreal’s young defense is due to get exposed on the road, and Calgary has too much veteran presence (Huberdeau, Kadri, Weegar) to keep tripping over itself forever.

We’re buying into effort, desperation, and value. Montreal’s hot streak has inflated their price; Calgary’s cold streak has buried theirs. Those two forces meet in a perfect betting storm tonight. 

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