Pinnacle    +165     BET365  +165  Sportsinteraction  +165  888port  +165

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Seattle +165 over Toronto

7:00 PM ET. OT included. The Maple Leafs squeaked out another home win Thursday night, this time in overtime against the Rangers, and you can already hear the Toronto echo chamber warming up again. “They’re grinding out wins,” they’ll say. “They’re learning how to win ugly.” Spare us. The Leafs were outplayed for long stretches, their power play finally connected once after going 0-for-10, and their goaltender had to make multiple desperation saves just to get them to overtime. That’s not “learning to win.” That’s surviving.

Meanwhile, Seattle has been the better five-on-five club in nearly every game they’ve played so far, yet they keep getting nicked by bad puck luck. They led late in both of their last two games, only to cough it up in the dying minutes before losing in extra time. That’ll even out. This team plays a structured, honest game, and they’re not afraid to grind in the trenches. Toronto is exactly the type of soft, perimeter-heavy team that the Kraken’s style punishes.

This number is inflated because the Leafs have been at home forever. They’ve opened the season with eight of ten in their own barn, while Seattle’s been living out of hotels since opening week. That narrative, however, is fully baked into the line. What isn’t baked in is that Toronto continues to skate on thin ice. They rely on outbursts from Matthews or Nylander, but beyond that, they’re paper thin defensively.

Seattle has outshot every opponent they’ve faced, and their expected goals share sits north of 55% through the first four games. They’re due for a breakthrough. Toronto, on the other hand, has been leaning on goaltending heroics and the same bad habits that have cost them every spring for a decade.

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