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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +185 over Utah Delta Center – Salt Lake City, UT

8:30 PM ET. OT included. The market has short-term memory. It sees a team on the second of back-to-backs, hears the words “third straight loss,” and immediately runs the other way. Calgary checks every box of a team the public wants no part of right now — tired, cold, and labeled as “uninspired.” That’s fine by us, because that same narrative is creating inflated value on the dog.

Utah shouldn’t be favored at this price against anyone right now. The Mammoth have scored five goals total through three games. Five. They’re generating very little offensively, living almost exclusively on the perimeter, and looking like a group still figuring out who they are. When a team’s leading storyline is “we need to get harder around the net,” you know the execution isn’t matching the talk. That’s not a switch you just flip.

The Mammoth did limit Chicago to 14 shots last time out — and still lost 3-1. That’s telling. They can control pace, they can forecheck, they can block shots, but they can’t finish. And in hockey, that’s a problem you can’t defend your way out of for long.

As for the Flames, sure, they blew another third-period lead last night against Vegas. That kind of collapse will stick in the market’s mind. It won’t, however, change the fact that this team can play. Calgary’s possession numbers have been solid, their defensive structure has held up, and they’ve actually carried play for long stretches — they just haven’t been rewarded. When that happens, variance usually swings back the other way sooner than later.

Devin Cooley likely gets the crease here, and while that might seem like a downgrade, it’s priced in — and then some. He doesn’t need to stand on his head; he just needs to be serviceable against a Utah team that can’t score. The Flames’ top six has been better than their results suggest, and with veterans like Backlund and Coleman setting the tone, this group isn’t mailing it in.

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