Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +140 over Vegas

Scotiabank Saddledome – Calgary, AB

9:00 PM ET. OT included. The market’s reaction to Calgary’s two straight losses is predictable and exploitable. The Flames opened with an emotional shootout win over Edmonton, then lost to Vancouver and St. Louis — two teams currently skating better than they’re priced. Now the market has bailed, turning the home side into a +140 pooch against a Vegas team that’s 2-0-1 but far from sharp. We’ll bite.

Vegas is still getting priced like the 2023 Stanley Cup version of itself, not the flawed iteration that’s been leaking chances and shuffling lines already in mid-October. Bruce Cassidy is moving pieces around like he’s looking for something that isn’t there, splitting up Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner in hopes of a spark. That’s not stability; that’s searching. Vegas has needed overtime in two of its three games, and Adin Hill’s save percentage sits at a mediocre .898.

Calgary’s not without warts — far from it — but the narrative that this team is “broken” after three games is premature. They’ve actually outshot opponents 98-82 at even strength, controlled large stretches of play, and gotten decent looks from their top six. The issue has been finishing, not structure. That’s a correctable problem, especially against a Vegas team giving up high-danger looks in bunches.

Matt Coronato has been buzzing and is one of the few forwards in the lineup finishing his chances. Dustin Wolf’s surface numbers (3.99 GAA, .865 SV%) look ugly, but that’s a product of small-sample variance and leaky third periods. He’s shown plenty of composure and actually owns a solid track record against the Knights, going 2-0-2 with a .910 save percentage.

Vegas’s stock is still inflated from name recognition. Calgary’s is deflated from a couple of misleading box scores. That’s how you find value in a market that overreacts to early-season noise. The Flames aren’t as bad as their record suggests, and Vegas isn’t as good as their points indicate. That's value.

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