Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -105 BET365  -105 Sportsinteraction  -105 888Sport  -105

Florida -105 over Tampa Bay

7:07 PM EST. OT included. The Panthers are up 2-0 in this series, and while the story has been the mind-bending saves made by goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, the fact of the matter is that the Panthers have skated circles around the Lightning and deserve to be where they are, which is firmly in the driver’s seat. The Cats outshot the Bolts 28-19 in Game 1 and won 3-2, and they outshot Tampa again in Game 2, 37-to-23 despite that game going to overtime, where Florida would win again, 3-2.

From a value-based perspective, it is very hard not to see tremendous value in Florida after it was a -175 favorite in Game 1 and a -182 favorite in Game 2. Yes, we acknowledge the loss of Sam Bennett, which leaves a hole, no doubt, but we’re not talking about Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon here. To further that point, in their two games played in Tampa this year, the Panthers were -126 on December 27 and -117 on February 17. Tonight, Florida is an underdog.

Perhaps the Lightning step up and outwork the Panthers in Game 3, but the games they’ve played this year suggest that the Cats are going to get their chances. Over the first two games, the Panthers had 31 high-danger scoring chances to the Lightning’s 18, but they couldn’t cash them in and therefore their final scores of those games were most flattering to the Bolts. In five games this year, the Panthers are 4-1 versus Tampa, and in the one game the Bolts beat the Cats this season, Florida outshot Tampa Bay 50-16. The Panthers have had the Lightning’s number all year, and as an underdog, we see no reason not to ride their hot hand on the road.

Sherwood

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