Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
St. Louis -½ +176 over Buffalo
8:07 PM EST. Regulation only. There’s so much to discuss here so let’s get to it with the Blue Notes, a team that is the epitome of how luck driven single game outcomes in this sport truly are. How else can the Blues season be explained?
Here is a quick breakdown of St. Louis’ season:
Won three straight to open the year
Lost eight straight
Won seven straight
Lost six of its next eight
Lost two straight
Won four straight
Lost three straight
6-6 in their last 12
It is clear that the Blues are a big risk when they’re favored just like they are here so what makes them playable tonight against a feisty underdog like the Sabres, whose résumé mirrors that of the Blues and many other teams?
What makes the Blues playable here is value and situation, as Buffalo played on Saturday and again last night in Dallas, thus it is the Sabres third game in four days and the tail end of a back-to-back. Furthermore, Buffalo played their hearts out last night, went into OT and emerged with an emotional win after a night of hard work. The Sabres are also 1-4 in the second game of back-to-backs. It is also the Sabres 10th game since January 9th so they’ve been exhausting themselves for the past two weeks and a day, which takes us back to value.
St. Louis hosted a very warm Chicago team on Saturday and oddsmakers made the Blues a -250 favorite. Chicago went into St. Louis and beat the Blues, 5-3. We understand that Buffalo is a better team than Chicago but should that one loss result in St. Louis being more than a full -100 less of a favorite here than they were against Chicago because of one lousy loss. It is worth noting that St. Louis dominated Chicago, outchanced them 22-15, outshot them 32-18, out-Corsied them 45-27 but lost because Jordan Binnington couldn’t make a stop and was eventually yanked?
Also worth noting is that Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Torey Krug are projected to return to the St. Louis lineup here. Both have missed double-digit sets of games, with Tarasenko missing the past 10 contests and Krug missing the past 13. Situationally, give a big edge to the Blues. Value wise, we can’t ignore that St. Louis was -250 at home last game and is almost half that price here despite getting two key players back, although Pavel Buchnevich is questionable.
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St. Louis -½ +176 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.52)