Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Miami +10 -110 over Kansas City
1:00 PM EST. Get the gas mask out because Miami might be the most disgusting ticket on the board, but the situational setup here is almost too good to ignore. Kansas City opened its season under the bright lights of Monday Night Football against Denver with Patrick Mahomes back and enormous expectations surrounding the Chiefs. The emotion was through the roof and Kansas City won. Six days later, right back under the lights for Sunday Night Football against Indianapolis. This time the Chiefs were pushed to the absolute limit, had to rally and eventually survived 33-30 in overtime. Two games, two prime-time showcases, two emotional battles and now a 2-0 record. What comes next? Miami at one o'clock in the afternoon as a double-digit favorite.
Talk about going from the penthouse to taking out the garbage and it gets better. Sitting directly behind Miami on Kansas City's schedule is Las Vegas, the Chiefs' most hated rival and a Raiders team that enters this week 2-0 and could potentially arrive at that game 3-0. Chiefs-Raiders doesn't require anybody in that locker room to circle the date with a red marker. That rivalry has been around forever. So Kansas City has just finished two nationally televised, emotionally charged games, including an overtime war, and has its biggest rival waiting next week. Sandwiched directly between all of that is an 0-2 Miami team that's been outscored 62-26. If there were ever a game where a superior team could subconsciously figure all it has to do is get off the bus, collect the win and get the hell out of town, this would be it.
Meanwhile, Miami has been humiliated for two straight weeks and now gets the exact opposite situation. Nobody wants the Dolphins. Malik Willis has been sacked nine times, they're 0-2 and they're hosting Patrick Mahomes. The market has essentially hung a sign around their neck that says DEAD TEAM WALKING. But Kansas City is also coming off a full overtime period Sunday night and now has to travel to South Florida for an early-afternoon game in the Miami heat. The Chiefs aren't walking into this thing fresh, emotionally or physically. They're walking into it after two weeks in which virtually every snap mattered, and now they're being asked to cover more than ten points against an opponent the entire football world expects them to destroy. That's the entire handicap.
This isn't about pretending Miami is good or arguing that the Dolphins suddenly belong in Kansas City's class. They don't. It's about catching Kansas City in an absolutely miserable situational spot while getting +10 with a team nobody could possibly want. The Chiefs have been on center stage for two straight weeks, just played overtime, are traveling to the South Florida heat and have the Raiders waiting on deck. Miami is the forgettable game stuffed directly between all of it. Kansas City can absolutely win this football game. But this has flat spot written all over it. Hold your nose, put on the gas mask and take the inflated number.
Our Pick
Miami +10 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
