Tennessee @ N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Giants -2½ -110 over Tennessee

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

N.Y. Giants -2½ over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. If you're looking for market overreactions, we have three of them wrapped into one game. Tennessee just pushed Philadelphia to the absolute limit in a game that received plenty of attention because the Eagles were one of the week's most popular survivor selections. Meanwhile, the Giants got their asses handed to them by the Rams on Monday Night Football with the entire country watching. Add Jaxson Dart's season-ending injury to the equation and you have the perfect storm. Tennessee's stock went straight up, the Giants' stock crashed, and the quarterback news poured gasoline on the fire.

The Dart injury has produced a massive adjustment by itself. The Giants were roughly -6½ in this matchup before losing their starting quarterback and are now laying only -2½ at home. That's a four-point move largely because Jameis Winston is taking over, and Winston's ugly relief appearance against the Rams certainly didn't help. He went 11-of-27 for 111 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but there's an enormous difference between being thrown into a Monday night game against the Rams after Dart goes down on the opening possession and preparing all week as the starter. Winston is a 12-year NFL veteran with plenty of starting experience. The market is treating the drop from Dart to Winston as enormous, and we're not convinced it is.

At the same time, Tennessee is getting upgraded for losing. The Titans gave Philadelphia everything it could handle, and anybody holding an Eagles survivor ticket remembers sweating that game like a motherfucker. Cam Ward played well, Tennessee led with under two minutes remaining, and the Titans suddenly looked nothing like the team the market wanted no part of entering the season. But they're still 0-2. One impressive performance against a Super Bowl contender doesn't suddenly make Tennessee worthy of this dramatic adjustment, particularly when that performance came in one of the most closely watched games of the weekend.

So there it is: triple market overreaction. Tennessee looked great in a highly visible game, the Giants looked like dog shit in an even more visible prime-time game, and New York lost Dart for the season. All three are being hammered into this number at once. A matchup that had the Giants favored by nearly a touchdown is now asking them to lay just 2½ at home, and the replacement quarterback isn't some practice-squad kid being introduced to the NFL. It's Jameis Winston. That's too much movement based on everything everybody just watched. We'll lay the short price with Big Blue.

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Our Pick

N.Y. Giants -2½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Miami +10 -110 over Kansas City
N.Y. Jets +6½ -105 over Detroit
Tampa Bay +100 over Minnesota
L.A. Chargers +7 -105 over Buffalo
Early leans & analysis over