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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO

Stream:ESPN2

Sam Houston +4½ -110 over Missouri St.

8:00 PM EST. This one comes down to a matchup inversion: Missouri State's offense is at its best when it throws the ball, and Sam Houston's defense is built to take exactly that away. The Bearkats rank third in the nation in passing yards allowed, giving up roughly 141 a game through the air at just 5.3 yards per attempt. That's the wall Missouri State runs into tonight . Duke transfer Henry Belin IV has sparked the Bears since taking over — 54 of 74 for 637 yards and four touchdowns in two starts, back-to-back 300-yard games — and Isaiah Myers leads Conference USA with 796 receiving yards. But a pass-first offence against the third-best pass defence in the country is a bad draw, and when the thing you do best gets erased, the points get harder to find.

The other side of the ball is where Sam Houston's case gets its second leg, because Missouri State's defence is a get-right spot for anybody. The Bears rank 130th in the nation in points allowed and just gave up 61 to Delaware last Tuesday. Sam Houston's offence has been dreadful — 121st in the country, 120th in scoring, dead last in rushing, and it managed just 177 total yards against Western Kentucky — but it doesn't need to be good tonight, it needs to be functional. Landyn Locke has thrown for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns, including an 81-yard strike to Tim Burns Jr. last week against New Mexico State, and against a defence this soft, functional is enough to keep a game within a field goal and change.

Sam Houston is 1-6, 0-3 in Conference USA, losers of four straight, and the run game produced 11 yards against New Mexico State — eleven, total. The run defense is 129th nationally, giving up about 200 a game on the ground, so Missouri State can grind this one out even if Belin has an off night. And the Bears are at home, with the hotter quarterback and the conference's best receiver. But laying four and a half with the 130th-ranked scoring defence, against a team whose one elite unit erases your best weapon, is too much to ask. Missouri State may win, but it shouldn't win by five. Take the points with Sam Houston.

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