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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY

Stream:CBSSN

Delaware -1½ +100 over Western Kentucky

7:00 PM EST. Delaware's season turns on one player, and he's back. Nick Minicucci missed two games with the leg injury he picked up against Virginia, then returned last Tuesday against Missouri State and threw five touchdown passes, fueling 30 straight second-half points in a 61-38 win that snapped a three-game losing streak. It's a different Blue Hens team with him under center — he can run, too, and the ground game rumbled for 232 yards behind him. Tonight he gets a Western Kentucky defence that struggles against the run and can't generate consistent pressure. That's the whole game plan: spread it out, throw in rhythm behind clean protection, let the run game keep the Hilltoppers honest, and let the quarterback be the best player on the field.

The other side of the ball is where Delaware has to survive, not dominate. The Hilltoppers are 13-2 in their last 15 home games, 2-0 at home this season, and have allowed just 16 combined points in their last two games, including a 16-3 win over Sam Houston on Oct. 14. They're coming off an open week, in front of a red-out crowd, while Delaware is on a short-week road trip — and the Blue Hens are 0-3 on the road with a secondary that got torched for 628 yards and five touchdowns over the last two weeks. Brock Glenn, the former Florida State quarterback starting in place of Rodney Tisdale Jr., hasn't been accurate, but he hasn't made mistakes either, and a mistake-free quarterback against a defence that gives up big plays is a live threat. Delaware doesn't need to shut WKU down, though — it needs to outscore them, and with Minicucci back, the Blue Hens just put up 61.

That's the bet, plain and simple: the quarterback changes everything. Delaware averages 28.3 points a game and allows 28.4 — this is a team that lives in shootouts, and the one game it had its starter back, it won one by 23. Western Kentucky's run defence and pass rush give Minicucci exactly the matchup he feasts on, and a short favourite laying a point and a half on the road only needs to win by a field goal. Lay it with Delaware.

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