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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY

Stream:CW

Northern Illinois +7½ +100 over Wyoming

3:30 PM EST. Do the math with me: Wyoming scores 14.5 points a game. One hundred thirty-fifth in the country. The total is barely 40. To cover seven and a half, the Cowboys need roughly 24 points — nearly double their season average. You're being asked to lay more than a touchdown with an offense that treats the end zone like a museum: look, don't touch. Northern Illinois is 0-5 and nobody's pretending otherwise, but in a game where both teams consider 17 points a shootout, the hook above seven does all the heavy lifting. Take the points.

The Huskies can help themselves here. Taron Dickens completes 69.3% of his passes — the problem isn't moving it, it's finishing. And Wyoming's last outing was a 16-13 overtime escape at San Jose State. This is a team that wins rock fights, not routs; they're 0-1 against the spread as big favorites this year precisely because the offense can't create separation. In Laramie, with the wind and the thin air, this has 20-13 written all over it. A field goal either way keeps the dog alive deep into the fourth.

Now the part where Wyoming ruins the party: the Cowboys' defense is the real unit — 43rd in scoring defense at 20.5 a game, with nine sacks and 19 tackles for loss over the last three. If that pass rush eats, Dickens (three picks to go with his three touchdowns) and an offense averaging 12.4 points might not crack double digits, and then the spread won't matter. But that's the beautiful thing about rock fights: the dog doesn't need to score much. It just needs to not get buried. Wyoming hasn't buried anyone all season.

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