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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN), Bloomington, IN

Stream:FOX

Indiana +137 over Ohio St. 

12:00 PM EST. Indiana is the home dog today? Let’s read that line again: the defending national champions, 6-0, riding a 22-game winning streak, playing at home — and they're +137. That's not an underdog price, that's a clerical error. Yes, Ohio State wants revenge for the Big Ten title game, and yes, Ryan Day is taking it personally. But revenge doesn't block for the quarterback, and the Buckeyes just lost their starting left tackle (Austin Siereveld, out) and their starting running back (Ja'Kobi Jackson, out), with Day himself admitting they "probably" won't be 100% by kickoff.

Then there's the matter of Josh Hoover, the most reformed man in college football. The TCU transfer threw 33 interceptions in three years, then showed up in Bloomington and went 17 touchdowns, zero picks. Zero. Last week he was down 17-6 in the fourth quarter at Nebraska and walked it off with a 44-yard bomb to Nick Marsh. Indiana pairs that with the 12th-ranked scoring offense and the 8th-ranked scoring defense — balance, efficiency, no panic. Jeremiah Smith is the Heisman favorite with cartoon numbers (916 yards, 11 touchdowns, 19.1 a catch), but the ball can't find him if the quarterback is running for his life, and Indiana's defense specializes in forcing long, methodical drives that strangle chunk plays.

Fair warning: Indiana keeps playing with fire. A 20-point underdog Northwestern lost by six in Bloomington, and Nebraska had them buried until the fourth quarter — one of these weeks the luck runs dry. And Ohio State's defense is legitimately elite (13.2 points a game, seventh nationally). But the numberFire model gives Indiana a 54.7% win probability anyway — the math says the home team should be favored, and the market says take +137. When the computers and the defending champs agree, you don't argue.

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