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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Michie Stadium, West Point, NY

Stream: CBSSN

Tulane  +152 over Army

12:00 PM EST. Army is favored at home, and apparently we're supposed to be impressed by the Black Knights' ability to run the football. Well, congratulations. Army has been running the football since approximately the invention of the forward pass, and nobody is suggesting Jeff Monken should suddenly start throwing it 40 times a game. The question isn't whether Army can run. It's whether the Black Knights can run effectively against a defense that knows exactly what's coming. That's where Tulane becomes interesting.

The Green Wave are coming off a bye, which is particularly significant when preparing for Army's option attack. Defensive coordinator Tayler Polk has been dealing with Army and Navy since arriving at Tulane in 2024, so this isn't some exotic offense that his players are seeing for the first time. In last year's meeting, Tulane limited Army to just 3.7 yards per carry in a 24-17 victory. This season, the Green Wave are allowing only 3.58 yards per rushing attempt, ranking among the nation's top 30.

That's a pretty important detail when your opponent's offensive philosophy revolves around running the football until somebody either scores or the sun goes down. Army, meanwhile, returns home after two exhausting road games. The Black Knights needed a late touchdown to escape Temple, 21-17, before losing 31-29 at Louisiana Tech last week. The offense produced some explosive runs, but the defense was another story. Louisiana Tech averaged an astonishing 8.8 yards per play, never turned the ball over and punted just twice. That's not exactly the kind of defensive performance that inspires confidence in a team being asked to lay a price.

Tulane hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either. The Green Wave nearly lost outright to Southern Miss as a 17½-point favorite before their bye, and that performance has helped keep their stock depressed. But that's precisely the attraction. Tulane isn't being priced on its ability to neutralize Army's greatest strength. It's being priced on an ugly performance against Southern Miss that occurred before the Green Wave had two weeks to regroup.

Army's offense is built on controlling possession and shortening games, which makes every possession more valuable. Tulane has already demonstrated that it can handle this particular opponent, and the extra preparation time only strengthens that matchup advantage. The Black Knights are getting the benefit of the home field and their reputation, but Tulane has the defensive personnel, familiarity and preparation time to make Army's afternoon miserable. At +152, the Green Wave are an attractive underdog with a legitimate opportunity to win outright.

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