Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette, LA

Stream: ESPN+

Arkansas St +6 -110 over UL Lafayette

8:00 PM EST. The market has already made a pretty substantial move toward Louisiana, taking the Cajuns from roughly -4 to -6½. We're going the other way. The available line is +6½, but rather than pay the additional vig for the hook, we're going to sell the half-point, take Arkansas State +6 and reduce the juice.

Louisiana is 3-1 and has covered all four games, while Arkansas State sits at 2-2 and has covered just once. That's exactly the type of early-season résumé that attracts money to one side, and the Cajuns have certainly earned some respect. Their defense has improved dramatically, they've created a pile of turnovers and they've been terrific once they get into the red zone. But after the move from four to 6½, we're no longer interested in paying the Louisiana tax.

The biggest issue is the Cajuns' offense. Lunch Winfield is dangerous with his legs but hasn't shown much ability to threaten defenses vertically. He has six rushing touchdowns, but hasn't thrown for more than 212 yards in a game and has just two touchdown passes. Louisiana wants to run the football, control the game and allow its defense to do the heavy lifting. That's a perfectly good formula when everything is going according to script, but if Arkansas State gets in front or forces Winfield into obvious passing situations, Louisiana's offensive limitations become much more pronounced.

Arkansas State has an interesting piece in Trey Owens. The Texas transfer has handled every meaningful pass for the Red Wolves and is also their leading rusher. At 6-foot-5, he can extend plays and create something when protection breaks down, and he's surrounded by a couple of receivers capable of generating explosive plays. Arkansas State's conventional running game hasn't provided much, but Owens gives this offense another way to move the chains and manufacture points.

The Red Wolves' defense is unquestionably the concern. They've been vulnerable against both the run and pass, and Louisiana's rushing attack should have opportunities. But the matchup isn't nearly as frightening when the opposing quarterback isn't stretching the field. Contain Winfield as a runner and force Louisiana to generate offense through the air, and the Cajuns become considerably less dangerous.

There's also been a lot of love for Louisiana already. Four straight covers, an improved defense and an opening number that has been steamed from -4 to -6½ have made the Cajuns an attractive commodity. That's precisely where the value starts shifting to the other side. We're getting an additional 2½ points from the opener with an Arkansas State team that has the more dangerous passing game and a quarterback capable of creating plays with both his arm and his legs.

Arkansas State can win this game outright. This isn't about grabbing six points and hoping the Red Wolves hang around long enough to sneak through the back door. The market has driven Louisiana's price too high, and Arkansas State is a very live dog with the tools to pull the upset. We'll gladly put those six points in our pocket, but don't be surprised if we never need them.

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