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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM

Stream: MW+

UTEP +22½ -110 over New Mexico

4:00 PM EST. New Mexico has looked outstanding through four games, while UTEP has looked downright awful. Put those two things together and you get 22½ points, and that's precisely why we're interested in the Miners. This number is asking bettors to pay full retail for everything New Mexico has accomplished while putting almost no value on the brutal schedule UTEP has already endured.

Look at the Miners' three losses: Oklahoma, Michigan and Oregon State. That's a hell of a way to open a season. UTEP was shut out by Oklahoma, eventually got overwhelmed by Michigan and was badly outplayed by Oregon State. Nobody is dressing that up. But those results have helped create an extremely depressed market on the Miners, and now they're stepping down considerably in class while being handed more than three touchdowns.

New Mexico's numbers, meanwhile, are almost too pretty. The Lobos are allowing just 11.5 points per game, haven't committed a turnover and own an absurd +14 turnover margin through four games. They've forced nine interceptions and five fumbles without giving one away themselves. That's been a massive part of their early success, but turnover margins like that don't continue indefinitely. New Mexico is playing good football, but the market is pricing the Lobos as though everything we've seen during the first month is their permanent level.

There is no question New Mexico has the cleaner profile. The Lobos can run the football, Toa Fa'avae adds another dimension with his legs, and Jason Eck's defense has been excellent. But we're not being asked which team is better. We're being handed 22½ points in a conference game between regional rivals, and that's an entirely different proposition. New Mexico can control this game from beginning to end and still have difficulty covering this number.

UTEP's offensive statistics are ugly, but again, context matters. The Miners have already lined up against Oklahoma and Michigan, and those games are sitting right there inside all those horrific national rankings. E.J. Colson has completed roughly two-thirds of his passes and has shown he can make some plays when he isn't being swallowed alive by an elite defensive front. This is still a difficult matchup, but it isn't Oklahoma and it isn't Michigan.

The market wants nothing to do with UTEP, and we understand why. That's also why we're getting 22½ points. New Mexico's stock couldn't be much higher, UTEP's couldn't be much lower, and the Lobos' ridiculous +14 turnover differential has helped exaggerate the gap between these teams even further.

New Mexico doesn't have to play poorly for this ticket to cash. They can win comfortably. We're simply asking UTEP to stay inside three touchdowns and a field goal in its Mountain West opener. At this inflated number, we'll gladly take our chances with the ugly dog.

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