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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

SAM HOUSTON STATE -1½ over Wyoming

Bernard J. Johnson Coliseum – Huntsville, TX

7:30 PM ET. On paper, this matchup looks straightforward: an undefeated Wyoming team catching points against a 1–2 Sam Houston squad. Most bettors will instinctively grab the dog and move on. But once you dig even a little deeper, the picture flips entirely.

Wyoming’s 4–0 record has come against the 356th-ranked strength of schedule per KenPom — literally bottom of the barrel. They’ve feasted exclusively in Laramie, beating up a D2 opponent plus Cal State Fullerton, Austin Peay, and a Portland team they were supposed to dominate. Four games in, the Cowboys have yet to leave home, yet to face resistance, and yet to prove anything against legitimate competition.

Sam Houston, on the other hand, owns a 1–2 mark that is wildly misleading. Their schedule? 10th-toughest in the nation. They went into Texas Tech and Utah as massive underdogs (31 and 13 points) and held their own in both spots. Those are real tests against real programs — nothing remotely comparable to what Wyoming has seen.

Now the Cowboys finally step on the road for the first time this season, leveling up in class, and instead of being priced like an undefeated power, they're catching a short number against a team that hasn’t even been favored yet. That alone should tell you which side the oddsmakers respect.

Sam Houston is stepping down in competition. Wyoming is taking a massive step up. The spread reflects that reality — not the glossy 4–0 record. The knee-jerk reaction is Wyoming. The right play is the Bearkats. Lay the small number.

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