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Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Tennessee-Martin +110 ML over Tennessee St

Gentry Center – Nashville, TN

8:30 PM ET. The “Music City Clash” between Tennessee-Martin and Tennessee State is the kind of rivalry that renders metrics and rankings irrelevant. When these two teams meet, intensity, emotion, and unpredictability take center stage. Rivalry games are often closer than the numbers suggest, and in a matchup like this, taking the short underdog at plus money is the logical move—especially when the underdog brings as much to the table as the Skyhawks do.

This game will likely hinge on turnovers and free throws, two areas where Tennessee State has glaring vulnerabilities. The Tigers rank a dismal 353rd nationally in turnovers, averaging 15.4 per game, and they’re just as shaky at the free-throw line, sitting 330th with a paltry 66.4% conversion rate. These are the types of flaws that can unravel a team in clutch situations, and they’re precisely why Tennessee-Martin is well-positioned to capitalize.

The market seems to have ignored these weaknesses, likely swayed by Tennessee State’s recent 19-point win over Eastern Illinois. That performance, combined with another blowout victory in their last three games, creates a perception that the Tigers are in strong form. However, a closer look reveals that Tennessee-Martin is just as competitive, if not more so. While the Skyhawks only beat Eastern Illinois by five points, their consistency in grinding out close games—and their ability to avoid being blown out—cannot be overlooked.

Recent history favors the Skyhawks, who have won the last two meetings between these teams convincingly. Moreover, Tennessee-Martin’s three most recent losses were by a combined total of three points. This is a team that could easily be sitting at 12-7 instead of 9-10, and if that were the case, they’d likely be the favorite here. The value lies in recognizing that the Skyhawks are better than their record suggests, while the Tigers are being overvalued based on superficial results. The Skyhawks could be 12-7 as quick as they are 9-10. Had that been the case, the Skyhawks would certainly be the chalk here which prompts us to move in on UT-Martin.

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