Posted at 1:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U218 -108 BET365 U217½ -110 Sportsinteraction U218½ -115 888Sport U218½ -110

Golden State/Orlando under 218

Best Odds: -108 at Pinnacle

7:10 PM EST. The Golden State Warriors got an important win last night against a banged up Heat squad, a free pick we shared on this site and loved on our own card, but now things are about to get a wee-bit more challenging. For starters, the Golden State offense still showed signs of clumsiness last night, despite the win. We knew Miami would have a hard time competing with the Warriors, especially when Jimmy Butler was announced out, but a shallow Miami roster still held the Warriors to just 34% from beyond the arc and 113 points. And that's with Miami virtually giving up in the second half, permitting 60 points to the visitors in the final two quarters. The "real" Golden State, the form we saw in the first half against a try-hard version of the Heat, was still clumsy, and they couldn't hit a 3-pointer to save their lives. In short, we're not convinced that their offense is ready for the playoffs, let alone their next opponent.

On the positive side, they finally played some defense last night. Miami was without Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, which was certainly a big part of their offensive challenges Tuesday, but they were at home and fired up at the start of the contest. Still, Miami only managed 92 points on 40% from the floor and a wretched 24% from distance. That's a good sign for a Warriors' squad that hasn't been very good defensively in March, and one that knows they need playoff-caliber resistance if they want to make any impact in the West. Even better for tonight's wager, Golden State was willing to adapt Miami's style - slow, methodical, more physical - and it led to a battle that only had 177 shot attempts.

The Orlando Magic have been a top-3 defense all year and haven't slowed down one bit. In fact, there are plenty of indicators that suggest they're at their best right now. Orlando is rated 2nd overall defensively in March. As the season has trudged on, they've become an even better unit against the three-ball (ranked 7th, allowing just 35.6% to opponents), and no team is more effective at preventing assists (23.9 allowed per game), rebounds (48.1 allowed per game), or turning assists into turnovers. The Magic are exceptional at tearing down their opponent's team chemistry, which makes them a great matchup for the pass-happy Golden State Warriors. Orlando has also run at a bottom-5 tempo all season.

Orlando is coming off a whopping 4 days of rest, a rarity in the NBA calendar. They'll have full energy tanks heading into tonight's matchup, against a competitor that probably won't be able to bring the same energy on either side of the ball. Last time these two programs clashed, the Warriors were coming off three straight losses and they were in a long 2-week stretch of home games. At the Chase Center, they poured it on Orlando and controlled the pace, forcing the Magic to play their style of ball. We see the opposite happening tonight. Unlike matchup one, when Orlando was on a tough road trip and the first night of an away back-to-back, it's the Magic who are in a much more advantageous position on Wednesday. And even though we're not quite ready to announce the Magic as one of the association's elites just yet, there's no denying how consistently exceptional they've been on defense all season. We like them to bog this game down, and while the spread is sharp, this number is still too high. We have it at 208.

Farley

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