Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +212 BET365 +210 Sportsinteraction +200 888Sport +200

Milwaukee over Indiana

Best Odds: +212 at Pinnacle

5:40 PM EST. Sharp bettors on public forums like to tell people that successful handicapping is all about the number, more than it's about the teams or any intangibles heading into a particular sporting event. They're right, and this game is the quintessential example of inflation in the NBA marketplace. 

It's not like we think the Indiana Pacers aren't a good team; they are. Indiana blew out the Bucks on Tuesday, shooting 55.6% from the field and out-muscling Milwaukee throughout the contest. On the road, Indiana outrebounded their opponent (45-40) and significantly out-scored them in the paint (52-36), an impressive feat considering how stingy the Bucks' front court can be, even without Giannis. It was the best version of the Pacers on Tuesday, a program that's now surging with Pascal Siakam in their lineup, a 2.0 version of their roster that's made them one of the NBA's best offenses since the trade. In stints, we've seen a Pacers' defense that can be very feisty and aggressive, too. Limiting the Bucks to just 44.4% from the field on Tuesday, including just 10/21 from the field for Damian Lillard, is what they can do when they catch a team off guard.

And we know that Doc Rivers' led outfits can be caught off guard, don't we? The old ball coach almost always brings his talented rosters to the playoffs, but then they go to die there shortly after. Inconsistency has been the brand of Rivers' teams of the past, but he doesn't get enough credit for how well he can coach up a defense. Under his direction, Milwaukee's resistance has starkly improved, earning top-10 marks in opponent three-point and effective field goal percentages this season. They also move slower (15th in tempo), which can take a rhythm-based offense like Indiana's out of its comfort zone. After allowing such pitiful marks in their last matchup, the Bucks will do their best to slow this one down and put down the clamps. We know they're capable.

The Bucks' roster is also full of players with deep playoff experience, a factor that cannot be understated in big contests like tonight's. Bobby Portis, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder; the Bucks' core has been here before, and they've all performed at a very high level with and without Giannis in postseason battles of the recent past. Pascal Siakam was a depth piece on the Raptors a few years ago when they won an NBA championship, but other than him the Pacers are a group of inexperienced young guys. And now they're the favorites, expected to win at home against a perennial contender.

Today's line presents a gargantuan expectation for a Pacers' team that's barely sniffed any success. Milwaukee came into this season like they do every year, expecting an NBA title. While that prospective might seem lofty at this juncture, the playoffs and this series is far from over. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors are making a statement by pushing up the spread and price of the Pacers' moneyline. We're happy to fade this impulse and go with a veteran outfit that's been built for these moments. 

Farley

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