Brooklyn @ Miami
Brooklyn +6 -106 over Miami

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +6 -106  BET365 +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +6 -110 888Sport +6 -110

Brooklyn +6 over Miami

8:10 PM EST. The Nets unloaded the rest of their "Big Three" before the trade deadline, sending Kyrie Irving off to Dallas and Kevin Durant to Phoenix. When the Nets made those deals, they were solidly in a playoff position in the East, but they were expected to tank in the standings without their "stars." Instead, the Nets have fought to remain in the hunt and now sit seventh, which is still good for a shot in the Play-In Tournament.

Brooklyn has lost five straight games, but when the quality of their competition is considered, those setbacks are more growing pains than anything else. The Nets dropped two games to the fourth-placed Cavs, and two games to two of the best in the West in Denver (1st) and Sacramento (3rd), as well as the Thunder, who are in the mix for the Play-In Tournament. If we go back one loss further, the Nets dropped a 118-113 decision to the mighty Bucks, covering as a 9½-point underdog.

Miami has won four of five, including two straight games, and finds itself in sixth place in the East. Despite the wins, the analytics do not like the Heat, where they still rank just 15th. The Heat were finalists in the East last season before falling to the Celtics but have not been able to follow up on that success this season. However, there is a perception in the market that Miami is still a contender that is chasing down the likes of the Knicks and Cavaliers in the standings. A win over the Knicks on Wednesday night lends some credibility to that perception, but that win and the others of late have only inflated Miami's standing in the media and the market.

To close, this is a significant pile of points for the Heat to spot against a team that trails them by just half a game for sixth place in the East. Moreover, the Nets are ranked ahead of the Heat in many key categories. We value the analytics that goes into those power rankings and trust that there is great value to be had with the inflated points on offer in this one.


Our Pick

Brooklyn +6 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Last 30 Days11150.00-9.42
Season to Date61630.00+2.17