NBA Free Picks for
Posted at 4:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.
L.A. Lakers -3 over Indiana
10:30 PM EST. We faded the Pacers yesterday against the Clippers, and we see no reason to stop tonight. As we discussed, Indiana has been over-performing at a high clip that cannot be sustained. The Pacers are a team that relies on fast break points that come off their defensive play, but the quality of their D has waned in recent games. The Pacers' ability to control the defensive boards is also eroding. Indy is now just 21st in defensive rebounding this season at 32.4 boards per game. However, over their last three, that number has dipped to just 27.7 boards per game. You can’t run a fast break offense if you don’t clean up the garbage in your own yard.
In addition to backing a hot Pacers team, the market was out to fade the Clippers because they were missing their two best players in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. We call that “injury chasing,” which is prevalent in the NBA market. Like the Clippers, the Lakers have also been banged up most of the year, with their big names missing significant time.
L.A. just finished back-to-back games in San Antonio, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis reuniting in the starting lineup for the first time in five games last Friday night. The reunion didn’t last long, as Davis was out again in the second half of that series, missing Saturday night’s 143-138 win. Davis is listed as “doubtful” tonight as trade rumors swirl around him, which has caused the injury chasers to take another shot on the Pacers. We’re also going back to the well, but it’s to fade those injury chasers and take an underpriced Lakers side that is in a similar range today as the undermanned Clippers were yesterday. With “The King” back in the lineup, that can’t be.
L.A. Lakers -3 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
NBA Historical - Totals
|Last 30 Days||10||7||0.00||+7.14|
|Season to Date||15||13||0.00||+4.90|