Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +131 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +120

Atlanta over Chicago

Best Odds: +131 at Pinnacle

9:35 PM EST. We missed on the favorite last night, as Sacramento might have finally put the nail in the coffin of Golden State's dynasty. Tonight we're steering clear of any chalk.

The Chicago Bulls are a classic example of an average team. When everything is going right, they're above average on both sides of the ball. Shooting ace DeMar DeRozan (24 ppg, 48% from the field) and aggressive scorers like point-guard Colby White are capable of leading an offense that can hang with proficient scoring teams. They also have the personnel and coaching to elevate on defense, although we haven't seen much of that this season. The best version of the Bulls was seen in their last game of the regular season, an OT battle where they took the top-tier Knicks to the brink at Madison Square Garden. At no point did they look unmatched by New York, who was clearly playing their hearts out hoping to earn the East's #2 seed. If that brand of Chicago shows up tonight, they could obliterate the Hawks at home and no one would blink an eye. We've all seen what their potential is, despite many of their recent shortcomings the last few years.

The issue is that we barely ever see that buttoned up version of the Bulls. Full season they ranked 20th in offense, 18th in defense, and predictably they're 22nd in net rating. Chicago often looks like a roster of disparate parts, something four-year coach Billy Donovan has yet to figure out, but they don't lack talent. At all the skill positions they have plenty; they just don't perform consistently as a unit. Part of that is probably a lack of leadership and team chemistry. Alex Caruso is the spear of their defense, a feisty and physical presence on the outside, but center Nikola Vucevic is often weak and mistake-prone protecting the rim. DeMar DeRozan is their best shooter, but he's soft spoken. He also doesn't have a consistent sidekick. Colby White was supposed to fulfill that role, but 19 ppg on just 44.7% from the field isn't going to cut it. Get by the flaws of their starting-five and it only gets worse from there. The Bulls' regular season issue is that they lack depth on offense, evidenced by a bench that ranks 29th overall this season. Contrarily, their second-unit ranks 1st in defensive efficiency, but against above-average shooting teams the Bulls can quickly give up a big lead when their starters sit.

The Atlanta Hawks aren't a real threat in the East either, but they've played much better over the last two months. Coincidentally, it all started when Trae Young left with a finger injury on February 23rd. The Hawks bordered on ranking as a top-10 team during a stretch of over one month since that date, rated 8th in offense and 16th in defense up until the start of April. They proceeded to lose their last 6 games in April, but that's not something we're concerned about. Seasoned coach for many years with the cyclically dominant Utah Jazz, Quin Snyder has been experimenting with the Hawks all season, trying to finesse a new culture that breeds better results, and they finally found their mojo in March. Atlanta's defense was extremely physical in big games, like their two straight wins against the Celtics on March 25th and 28th, and Dejounte Murray's star-power shined bright in important matchups. Although far from perfect, the Hawks became a team few other programs wanted to face in March, going 11-7 ATS from February 25th to April 1, and beating high-quality opponents like New York, Cleveland, and the L.A. Clippers.

The Hawks and Bulls are two tough teams to figure out, but there's little doubt who's in better form to end the season. Trae Young's return adds a wrinkle to their lineup, we'd prefer they were without Young, but there's no denying how clutch the messy-haired three-point sharpshooter can be in these situations. The Bulls haven't been a good perimeter team all season (35.8%, 20th overall), so Young's scoring ability could really tip the scales in favor of the away team. Expect a lot of defense, a slower pace (yes, we like the under, too), and a game-ready Hawks' squad to throw off the Bulls in their own arena. Chicago doesn't handle these play-in tournament games very well, just ask them about last year.

Farley

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