Charlotte @ Golden State
Charlotte +13 -110 over Golden State

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +13 -110 BET365 +13 -110 Sportsinteraction +12½ -105 888Sport +13½ -116

Charlotte +13 over Golden State

Best Odds: -110 at Pinnacle and BET365

10:00 PM EST. The NBA market keeps getting the Hornets wrong. Regardless of what other analysts may think, and we all know many people think many things in the oversaturated industry of sports betting, the Hornets got better after their recent trade. Charlotte traded underperformer P.J. Washington to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for two veterans, Grant Williams, and Seth Curry. They also sent Gordon Hayward to the Thunder for upstart guard Tre Mann and other depth pieces. Like him or hate him, Charlotte landing Grant Williams, a guy who played for an elite roster in Boston and has become known for his physical style of play, is a big deal. Williams, Mann, and Curry all provide veteran savvy and experience, but Williams is a perfectly complimentary piece for a young Hornets’ roster that needs more on-court leadership. Williams is underrated by NBA markets, partially because he reportedly “rubbed guys the wrong way” in his short tenure with Dallas, but that’s the kind of moxie the Hornets need. And we’ve already seen an effect.

These are the Hornets’ spreads and results in their last 4, aka since the trade:

5½-point underdogs vs. Memphis, won by 9
10-point underdogs vs. Indiana, won by 9
7-point underdogs vs. Atlanta, won by 23
9½-point underdogs at Utah last night, won by 8

Of course, all things eventually regress to the mean, and the Hornets probably aren’t quite as good as their recent showings, but in this case oddsmakers are starting to look downright foolish. In their last four contests, Charlotte has crushed the spread by an average margin of 20.25 points per game. That’s rather eye-popping, don’t you think? We also must consider their opponent tonight.

This is about as obvious as it gets for what bettors like to call a “let-down spot” for the home team Warriors. Last night the surging Warriors, who have won 9 of their last 11 games, beat up on their Pacific Division rival, the L.A. Lakers. No doubt they took advantage of a Lebron-less visiting team, but Golden State has leveled up since their assistant coach passed away, looking more and more like a real contender in the West. Draymond Green has been under control, Steph Curry has been sensational, Klay Thompson is playing with fire coming off the bench, and other role-players have stepped up in major ways.

But this spread is still extremely inflated. Believe it or not, the Hornets are a top 5 defense since the trade. They also rank 5th overall in net rating (an offense + defense composite metric). The roster-change has come at a good time for Miles Bridges, who was recently exonerated from a few criminal charges. Without LaMelo Ball he’s clearly the team’s main scorer and he’s taken that role seriously. Last night he finished with a double-double, and he’s averaged 27 ppg in his last 8 starts. Both teams are on the second leg of a back-to-back tonight, but only Golden State has a big lookahead game (Denver on Sunday). This is a let-down and sandwich spot against a feisty program that’s feeling itself right now. We can’t not take Charlotte.

Farley

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Our Pick

Charlotte +13 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Toronto @ Atlanta
Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½ +105

Posted at 12:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O61½ -118 BET365 O62½ -110 Sportsinteraction O62½ +105

Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½

Best Odds: +105 at Sportsinteraction

7:00 PM EST. At this point, the identity of the Atlanta Hawks is no mystery. There’s a reason the Hawks have been one of the best “over” teams in the association this season, and there’s really no argument to suggest that’s changing. Atlanta has routinely been a top-5 offense while maintaining a bottom-5 defense for nearly all 4 months of their schedule thus far, a recipe that clearly hasn’t always brought the best results in the win/loss department. In front of their own fans, we can count on high totals even more, covering 64.3% (18-10) ATS to the over at State Farm Arena and 65% ATS (13-7) as a home favorite. At 121.3 points per game as their average, only two other teams are better (Indiana and Milwaukee). And unlike their foe, they didn’t play last night. A well-rested Hawks roster is a nightmare for any defense, but especially for one that’s struggled as much as Toronto.

We’re confident that Darko Rajakovi? will eventually turn the Raptors into a winning program. His accolades abroad are well-documented, and the Serbian is spoken of highly by players and other NBA coaches. The Raptors just aren’t quite there yet. Last night was a stellar performance by Toronto, perhaps one of their better all-around games of the season, dominating the Nets for a 28-point win at home. To our point, when Darko is given time with his team, improvements will likely come. At the same time, great performances and particularly great defense hasn’t exactly been their norm. Toronto’s defense has been either average or very poor since the first tipoff in late October. Since January 1, they rank 27th. On average, they allow 57.5 ppg in the first half to their opponents, ranking 16th.

In short, this is a fantastic regression spot for the visiting team. Negative regression, that is. The Raptors utilized nearly all their roster last night. Starters Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and Immanuel Quickley all played over 30 minutes. The Hawks, who are completely healthy besides backup center Onyeka Okongwu, have had the fortune of game-planning and waiting for their enemy to head down south. And they’re off a full 9 days of rest.  We don’t trust the full game over or even the Hawks full game team total to go over since there’s a chance this is a blowout and eventually it could slow down. We also don’t trust the Hawks to cover, since they’re the NBA’s worst team ATS (17-38, 30.9%). What we do trust is that the Hawks will come out on fire in their first game back. Atlanta averages 61.4 ppg in the first half; at least another 2 points can be expected, considering the circumstances.

 

Farley

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Our Pick

Atlanta 1H Team Total over 62½ +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days8120.00-6.18
Season to Date49440.00+10.92