NBA Free Picks for

Pinnacle -4½ -108 BET365 -4½ -110 Sportsinteraction -4½ -110 888Sport -4½ -110
Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.
L.A. Clippers -4½ over Memphis
Intuit Dome – Los Angeles, CA
10:30 PM ET. We’ll keep this simple: Memphis is a market darling. The Grizzlies boast the best against-the-spread (ATS) record in the NBA at 35-18, sit atop the Southwest Division, and hold the second-best record in the Western Conference (36-17). They’ve won eight of their last ten and covered seven of those games. On paper, they look like a no-brainer, even on the second night of a back-to-back. So why are they getting points here against a Clippers team that has been just 5-5 ATS in their last 10? Because it’s a trap.
The betting math doesn’t add up. Memphis is actually taking back fewer points than they should be. Teams that crush the spread like the Grizzlies inevitably become overvalued, either by laying inflated numbers or receiving deflated lines. The books know the public loves a hot team, and this is the moment they cash in on that bias.
Need proof? Just look at Portland on Saturday. The Trail Blazers had been printing money for bettors, covering non-stop, and opened as a +6 dog against Minnesota. The line got bet down to +4.5 because the public couldn’t resist. What happened? The Timberwolves blew them out by 16. Now, Memphis is taking back its highest number in two and a half months—exactly the kind of setup that has crushed public bettors time and again.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are rested—they’ve had four full days to prepare. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, just played last night, grinding out a 119-112 win at Phoenix as a 3.5-point favorite. The market isn’t accounting for the rest disparity, the travel, or the fact that Memphis is due for regression. Instead, all the focus is on the easy, low-hanging fruit: "Memphis is too good to be an underdog here!" The Clippers will be more than happy to answer that skepticism emphatically. And the best part? We’re getting them at a discount while they do it. Underlay.
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Our Pick
L.A. Clippers -4½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

Pinnacle +197 BET365 +195 Sportsinteraction +195 888Sport +195
Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.
Chicago +197 ML over Detroit
United Center – Chicago, IL
7:00 PM ET. We always preach the importance of playing numbers, not teams, and this matchup is a textbook example of that philosophy. Chicago and Detroit have already met twice this month, with the Pistons taking both games. In the first meeting in Detroit, the Pistons covered as a six-point favorite, winning by nine. In the second meeting last night in Chicago, they humiliated the Bulls by 40 points as a five-point favorite. And yet, when the line opened this morning, Detroit was favored by just 4.5 points.
Wait, what?
We love moving in on head-scratching lines like this because they tell us that the numbers don’t tell the whole story. A 40-point drubbing is ugly, and no one wants to back the team that just got obliterated, especially in a nationally discussed beatdown. Detroit led at halftime 71-29, the largest halftime lead in franchise history. Naturally, the market has buried Chicago today. Nobody wants a piece of the Bulls. But that’s exactly where we step in.
Remember earlier this season when the Clippers beat the Nets by nearly 60? The next night, Brooklyn was in the exact same situation Chicago is in now—completely abandoned by the market, written off as dead. The Nets went into Los Angeles as a massive underdog against the Lakers and not only covered with ease, but nearly pulled off the outright upset. The exact same setup is in play here, and the oddsmakers are already warning us that last night’s blowout isn’t all it seems.
Chicago had a historically bad first half where everything unraveled. The Bulls—typically a 37% three-point shooting team—missed their first 20 three-point attempts. That’s absurd. Missing 20 straight threes has the same statistical likelihood as a team catching fire and dropping 150 points in a game. These types of outlier performances simply don’t happen twice in a row. When Chicago finally settled in during the second half, they actually outscored Detroit.
The best way for the Bulls to erase that disaster? Pick up where they left off in the second half and play a full 48 minutes. If that version of Chicago shows up, this game will be competitive, and believe it or not, Chicago can win outright. It might sound crazy, but the writing is on the wall. The oddsmakers have dropped this line from previous meetings because they know the Bulls are primed for revenge. Detroit is overvalued, and Chicago is seeing red.
Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer!
For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.
For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.
Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose.
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Our Pick
Chicago +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)
NBA Historical - Totals
Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Last 30 Days | 11 | 6 | 0.00 | +11.98 |
Season to Date | 34 | 27 | 0.00 | +16.94 |