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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco -1½ +190 over Arizona

Landen Roupp (RHP- San Francisco, 4.34 ERA)

José Cabrera (RHP- Arizona, 5.60 ERA)

9:45 PM EST. We are going to beef up the number and take San Francisco on the run line. This is exactly the type of price we like because the Giants are not asking us to lay a premium with the better starting pitcher. Landen Roupp has the superior current profile, carrying a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP compared with José Cabrera's 5.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Roupp has also worked deep into the season with a much larger body of innings, while Cabrera is being asked to step into a major-league start with far less recent experience at this level.

The more important point is the direction of the two arms. Roupp has pitched to a 3.58 ERA over his last 32.2 innings, showing a considerably better level of current form than his season number indicates. He has also produced 130 strikeouts in 134.2 innings overall, giving San Francisco a legitimate swing-and-miss component on the mound. Cabrera's current 5.60 ERA and 1.53 WHIP leave much less margin for error, and that is the side of this matchup we want to attack.

This is where the beefed-up run line becomes appealing. We are not interested in paying a price simply to take the Giants straight up, especially with San Francisco sitting close to a pick'em on the money line. We would rather lay the extra run-and-a-half and demand more from the number. The market is essentially telling us these teams are close, while the starting-pitching profiles tell us there is a meaningful difference between Roupp and Cabrera.

We don't need to predict a blowout to make this wager work. We need San Francisco to turn the better pitching matchup into enough separation to cash the enhanced run-line price. Cabrera's current numbers are the biggest concern for Arizona, while Roupp gives the Giants a much stronger foundation from the opening pitch. We are beefing up the number and laying the run and a half with San Francisco.

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