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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +110 over Baltimore

Trevor Rogers (LHP- Baltimore, 4.14 ERA)

 St. Louis TBD

2:15 PM EST. We are not going to let the absence of a name beside the Cardinals starter scare us away from this one. The number is already posted, and that is what matters. Trevor Rogers comes in at 4.14 ERA with 114 strikeouts, but this is hardly a situation where Baltimore has earned the right to be priced as a clear-cut favorite. Rogers has been serviceable, not dominant, and his current run-prevention profile leaves plenty of room for St. Louis to make this a competitive game.

The market has already decided what it wants to charge us for the uncertainty on the St. Louis side, and we think that is precisely where the opportunity is. The Cardinals are at home, and the oddsmakers are asking bettors to pay for Baltimore's known starter while essentially guessing on the other side. We don't mind taking that gamble at the right price because the difference between these clubs on the mound is not nearly as wide as the line suggests. The Cardinals have also lost the first two games of the series, which only adds to the temptation to automatically jump on Baltimore. We are not taking that leap.

This is one of those games where the betting number is more important than the names attached to it. We are not claiming St. Louis has a pitching advantage before the starter is announced; we are saying the price has already accounted for the uncertainty, and that creates the value we are looking for. Rogers has to be very good to justify the market making Baltimore the preferred side, and we don't see enough in his current numbers to warrant laying a premium.

The number is already there, the matchup is not nearly as one-sided as the market suggests, and we are willing to take our chances with the Cardinals at home.

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