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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +110 over Texas

Anthony Kay (LHP- Chicago) — 3.98 ERA

Jacob deGrom (RHP- Texas) — 3.79 ERA

7:40 PM EST. This is not a case of pretending deGrom isn't the better-known pitcher. He has been excellent at missing bats, with 11.16 K/9 against just 2.27 BB/9, and his 3.79 ERA comes with a 1.13 WHIP. That is a very good profile. The problem for us is the price being attached to it, because Anthony Kay has quietly put together a very respectable season of his own. Kay is at 3.96 ERA with a 7.35 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 over 127.1 innings.

Kay's recent work is also better than the surface ERA suggests. In his last five starts he has allowed nine earned runs across 28.2 innings, while keeping the walk total under control and producing 24 strikeouts. His most recent start was particularly encouraging, with six innings of two-run ball against Atlanta. We are not looking for Kay to match deGrom strikeout for strikeout; that would be unrealistic. We need the left-hander to keep Chicago in the game, and his current form gives us plenty of reason to believe he can do exactly that.

DeGrom is coming off an outstanding start against Washington, but the outings immediately before that were much less convincing. In his previous three starts he surrendered eight earned runs over 10.1 innings, including a five-run outing against Houston and a two-inning appearance against the Angels. His August line now sits at a 4.41 ERA with 25 strikeouts and eight walks in 16.1 innings. That is not the profile we want to pay a premium for, particularly against a Chicago team that has been playing meaningful baseball all month.

Chicago is the play. DeGrom has the superior strikeout numbers, but we are not buying the name; we are buying the current matchup and the price. Kay has been competitive throughout the season, his recent innings have been solid, and the ERA gap between these two starters is minimal. We expect Chicago to make this a much more difficult assignment for Texas than the market suggests. Give us the White Sox at home.

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