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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +110 over San Diego

Paul Skenes (RHP- Pittsburgh) — 3.95 ERA
Michael King (RHP- San Diego) — 3.38 ERA

9:40 PM EST. This is not a play based on the name attached to the front of the jersey. The surface numbers actually make this a much more interesting mound matchup than the betting line suggests. Michael King owns the lower ERA, but his current underlying profile is not nearly as dominant as that number indicates. Paul Skenes, meanwhile, has a 3.95 ERA that does not tell the whole story, with a 29.8% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate and a 1.14 WHIP. More importantly, his 2.93 xERA is considerably better than the actual ERA.

That is the number we keep coming back to. Skenes is still missing bats at an elite level, and the 30.8% strikeout rate against the current San Diego roster is another indication of how difficult his arsenal can be to handle. The Padres have made contact against him in the past, but the quality of that contact has been limited, with a .219 expected wOBA in the available Statcast sample.

King has been solid, but there is nothing in his current profile that makes us afraid of him against Skenes. His career numbers against the current Pittsburgh roster show a 26.7% strikeout rate, but also an 8.9% walk rate and a .330 wOBA. That is not an automatic advantage for the Padres, particularly when the opposing starter owns the superior strikeout percentage and substantially better xERA indicators.

This is where we trust the market has it wrong. Pittsburgh is being priced on Skenes' 3.95 ERA while we are looking at the much more important underlying numbers. The 2.93 xERA, nearly 30% strikeout rate and excellent walk rate give us the profile of a pitcher who should be considerably better than his surface ERA suggests. We are taking Pittsburgh tonight. The Pirates have the pitcher with the superior underlying profile, and we trust Skenes is in a very good position to get the job done and put Pittsburgh in position to win this game outright.

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