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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis -1½  +160 over Arizona

Andre Pallante (RHP – St. Louis) – 3.96 ERA

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP – Arizona) – 2.29 ERA

4:10 PM EST. At first glance, this looks like a pitching mismatch because Eduardo Rodriguez has put together an outstanding season, but that's exactly why there's value on St. Louis. Andre Pallante has quietly been one of the Cardinals' most reliable starters, using his heavy sinker to generate ground balls at one of the highest rates in baseball while keeping his club in games almost every time he takes the mound. St. Louis has also been one of the National League's better offensive teams against left-handed pitching, ranking near the top in batting average and OPS in those matchups, making this a far less favorable spot for Rodriguez than his season numbers would suggest.

The Cardinals are built to manufacture runs rather than waiting for the home run, and that's a dangerous recipe against a pitcher who lives around the strike zone. St. Louis consistently puts the ball in play, limits strikeouts, and has been among the league leaders in clutch hitting with runners in scoring position. Arizona has played well at home, but its bullpen has shown cracks throughout the season, and if Pallante can keep the game close through the middle innings, the Cardinals have every opportunity to separate late. St. Louis has also been one of the stronger road clubs in the National League, showing an ability to win away from Busch Stadium against quality opponents.

Laying a run and a half on the road isn't for the faint of heart, but this is one of those spots where the better value comes from the alternate line instead of the moneyline. The market is pricing this game almost entirely on Rodriguez's ERA, while overlooking how well St. Louis matches up against left-handed pitching and how consistently Pallante has kept his team in position to win. Expect the Cardinals to scratch out an early lead, add on against Arizona's bullpen, and finish the job by multiple runs. The reverse run line offers the better return, and St. Louis has all the ingredients to cash it.

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