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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +125 over Cleveland

Taj Bradley (RHP – Minnesota) – 3.87 ERA

Gavin Williams (RHP – Cleveland) – 4.01 ERA

1:10 PM EST. Taj Bradley's underlying numbers continue to point toward sustainable success. Bradley has paired his 3.87 ERA with an xERA that remains comfortably below 4.00, while his swing-and-miss arsenal has translated into a K/9 north of 10.0. His BB/9 has stayed under control, allowing him to work ahead in counts and attack hitters rather than pitching out of constant traffic. Bradley has consistently generated chase swings with his fastball-splitter combination, and his strikeout profile gives Minnesota the higher ceiling on the mound.

Gavin Williams enters with a 4.01 ERA, but his advanced metrics paint a more modest picture. His xERA sits slightly above his traditional ERA, while his K/9 has settled in the low-8.0 range, noticeably behind Bradley's strikeout production. Williams has also issued more walks than desired, carrying a BB/9 around 3.5, leading to elevated pitch counts and extra baserunners. Although he has limited damage in several outings, the combination of average swing-and-miss numbers and inconsistent command creates opportunities for disciplined offenses.

Minnesota's lineup has excelled at grinding through plate appearances, consistently forcing opposing starters into deep counts while ranking among the better clubs at drawing walks against right-handed pitching. That approach matches up well against Williams, whose command has been inconsistent throughout the season. Bradley's ability to miss bats minimizes the risk of extended rallies, giving the Twins a significant edge in the most important matchup on the field.

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