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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis -105 over Texas

7:45 PM EST. Dustin May (RHP – STL) is quietly putting together one of his better stretches of the season and remains one of the more undervalued starters on the board. The hard-throwing right-hander is coming off a pure quality start (PQS-5) in Milwaukee and continues to show encouraging underlying indicators. His velocity is up, his walk rate is down, and despite working around a somewhat inflated .322 batting average on balls in play, May has continued to compete effectively. The stuff has always been there. Now the command is beginning to follow, making him a strong candidate to take another step forward as the summer progresses.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP – TEX) deserves respect and this play is not intended as a knock against him. When healthy, Eovaldi remains one of the more dependable veterans in the game, pairing excellent control with strong groundball tendencies. However, the Rangers have struggled to support him consistently and continue to be one of the most frustrating offenses in baseball. Watching Texas try to manufacture runs on a nightly basis has become an exercise in patience, as scoring opportunities often disappear as quickly as they appear.

The Cardinals are the side offering value here. St. Louis is at home, they're sending an ascending starter to the mound, and they're being offered at essentially a pick'em price against a Texas club that continues to underperform offensively. The market is giving plenty of weight to Eovaldi's reputation, but not enough to May's current form. We are. With the better offense, home-field advantage, and a pitcher whose arrow is pointing straight up, the Cardinals are worth backing at this modest price.

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