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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New York +110 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. Christian Scott (RHP – NYM) takes the ball for New York after one of his sharpest outings of the season, allowing just one run over five innings against Miami while striking out eight. The right-hander has quietly been one of the Mets' most consistent starters, posting a 2.97 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and an excellent 16% K-BB rate. Scott has struck out at least five batters in five consecutive starts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in every outing during that stretch. While his pitch counts have limited him to five innings or fewer in four of seven starts, his swing-and-miss arsenal has been highly effective against lineups prone to chasing and striking out.

Michael King (RHP – SD) has been solid for San Diego with a 3.18 ERA, continuing the success he showed after moving into a full-time starting role. King generates strikeouts at an above-average rate and relies heavily on his elite changeup and sweeping slider combination. However, New York's lineup has seen him before from his days in the National League and possesses several hitters capable of handling right-handed pitching. King's biggest vulnerability has been occasional command lapses that elevate his pitch count, and if the Mets can force long at-bats early, they could gain access to the middle innings sooner than San Diego would prefer.

The value on New York as a road underdog comes from the combination of a couple of things, Scott's current form and also a very favorable offensive matchup. Over the past month, San Diego has hit just .196 against right-handed pitching while striking out nearly 25% of the time, a profile that aligns perfectly with Scott's ability to generate whiffs and limit hard contact. The Mets enter with the hotter starting pitcher based on recent performance, and if Scott continues his streak of limiting opponents to three runs or fewer, New York has a strong opportunity to steal this game outright. When an underdog sends a pitcher carrying a sub-3.00 ERA against a struggling offense, the plus-money price becomes difficult to ignore

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