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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

St. Louis over Chicago

1:10 PM EST. Miles Mikolas (RHP - St. L) has pitched much better lately, as he's gone at least six innings in his last four starts, with his latest being a seven-inning, one-hit gem against Pittsburgh. While his season 13% K-BB is in line with his career numbers, he's maintained a 17% K-BB over the last month - and this opponent has a 24% strikeout rate vs. RHP. The Cubbies offense is not performing very well these days.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley today (total is 11) so chances are very high that one or both of these teams are going to put up a crooked number. We’re betting that Jameson Taillon (RHP - CHC) gets his bell rung today because he’s flashing well below-average skills.

Taillon’s swing and miss rate has dropped, as his four-seam fastball's (6%), his cutter's (7%), and his curveball's 9% swing and miss rate have not missed many bats. His K% is in the bottom tier of the league’s starters. A lucky strand rate is helping keep his ERA below his xERA, and a HR/F dip is also helping his results.

When looking at his below-average skills, Taillon's current ERA is expected to increase. With a favorable strand rate and HR/F, his misleading ERA of 3.09 should move closer to his xERA of 5.08. It’s worth mentioning that last year Taillon had some violent hit/strand% corrections, which did some damage to his ERA and also undid some of the damage when he was getting lucky. This is a very hittable pitcher on a very hittable day at Wrigley.

Sherwood

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