Pinnacle +113 BET365 +105 Sportsinteraction +110 888Sport +112

Posted at 1:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Oakland +105 over L.A. Angels

9:38 PM EST. Mitch Spence (RHP - OAK) recently threw seven innings versus the Blue Jays, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out three in the no-decision. He also retired the final 16 batters he faced. In his last outing, Spence allowed two runs on six hits and one walk while striking out seven batters over six innings in a no-decision against Kansas City. Mitch Spence has walked 4 batters over his last 30 frames with 22 K’s and comes in with respectable and supported numbers across the board. He throws strikes and he’s very worthy of a spot in the rotation. Moneyball. 

A quick look at this line and it would appear that the Angels are underpriced to a high degree. After all, the market is acutely aware of just how awful the A’s are, which means nobody wants to bet them. Now you can get behind the Angels at this small price with Tyler Anderson (LHP - LAA) and his 2.48 ERA after 15 starts. Looks pretty sweet, no? 

Well, we’re here to tell you that Tyler Anderson is the luckiest starter on the planet. You would be hard pressed to find another starter over the past 20 years with a bigger discrepancy between ERA and xERA than Anderson. Dude indeed has a 2.48 ERA but his xERA is closer to 6.00 (5.69) than it is to 3.00. Anderson has a brutally awful 63 K’s in 94 frames but it gets worse. He has walked 41 batters, thus his K/BB ratio is amongst the worst in the game. Over his last 30 frames covering five starts, Anderson has walked 18 and struck out 19 and it’s not like he’s inducing grounders either. His groundball rate is below average at 37%. This is a 34-year old career stiff that barely throws 90 MPH but has somehow turned cat shit into caviar due toi a completely unsustainable 86% strand rate. If you bet on the Angels today, of course you may win but you would be buying a horse and carriage that is about to turn into a pumpkin. 

Sherwood

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