Pittsburgh @ N.Y. Mets
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets

7:10 PM EST. Jose Quintana (LHP - NYM) picked up his first win of the season in his last outing versus the Braves last Wednesday, but even a blind squirrel will find a nut every once in a while, and we’ll note the Mets also put up 16 runs in that effort. Quintana wasn’t great either, by the way, as he gave up three earned runs on five hits while walking two in 5.1 innings pitched. The free passes have been an issue so far for the 35-year-old southpaw, as he has given up eight walks in his 15.2 IP across three starts while striking out 12. Those strikeout numbers, while modest, look to be on the high side as well, as they are supported by a very weak 6.3% swing and miss rate. Quintana is walking guys, giving up hits, and not generating whiffs. Dude is playing with fire, and it’s only a matter of time until he gets burned.

Meanwhile, the Pirates will try to rebound after dropping the opener in this series yesterday, 6-3, in a game that the Bucs went up 3-0 in before giving it right back and then allowing three runs in the bottom of the eighth to drop their record to 11-6. Pittsburgh will send out Jaren Jones (RHP - PIT) for his fourth turn of the year after he was saddled with the loss in his last start last Thursday versus the Phillies. Jones was pretty good in that start where he gave up three runs over 6.1 innings while punching out eight Phillies, but the Pirates just couldn't muster many runs in that game. Jones brings a tidy 0.94 WHIP, a 25:2 strikeout-to-ball ratio, and an uber-elite 18.9% swing and miss rate into this game tonight, but he is just 1-2. Jones has looked the part of a front-line starter thus far, despite losing his last two turns, although both of those appearances were quality starts, which is another good reminder that while wins and losses are overvalued in the market, they very often do not tell the whole story. However, they do allow us to find value in pitchers such as Jones, who is so much better than Quintana that the former must be backed as an underdog to such a stiff as the latter.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Washington +134 over Seattle
Texas +143 over Minnesota
L.A. Angels +100 over Cleveland
San Diego +100 over N.Y. Yankees