Posted at 1:55 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +143  BET365 +140 Sportsinteraction +140  888Sport +140

NY Mets +140 over Philadelphia

7:15 PM EST.  Ranger Suarez (LHP - PHI) is average. He comes in with a nifty 3.80 ERA but don’t buy it, as his skills and under-the-hood numbers do not support that ERA. Suarez has 109 K’s in 114 innings, which is ok but his 44 walks issued are shaky, which has led to a just as shaky 1.40 WHIP. He walked four batters in his last start in six innings and has walked 9 batters over his past 16 innings. Suarez’s xERA over his last five starts is 5.75 and he’ll face a Mets’ squad that just belted out 21 hits over their last two games at Miami’s pitcher-friendly park.

About Suarez’s struggles lately…..expected ERA, WHIP regression combined with slides in BB%, K%, and swing and miss rate will do it. He still has work to do vR and seems more likely to tread water than take a step forward. As a favorite priced in this range, Suarez is a massive risk because New York has a better starter going. 

After making life miserable for the Marlins, the Metropolitans take their show to Philadelphia and all we have to say about that is, “Philadelphia should be thankful that they have a four-game lead in the Wild Card because the Mets are a problem. So, too, is David Peterson (LHP - NYM).

Peterson has a 5.22 ERA and a 4.61 ERA over his last five starts. That does not look pretty on paper but underneath the hood, you would be hard-pressed to find another pitcher in the league that has looked better. Over his past 27 frames covering five starts, Peterson walked 7 and struck out 34. Those 34 K’s has the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate over his last seven starts is an off-the charts 59%. Peterson’s xERA is 3.25. That puts him among elite company. Peterson is nasty when his levers and stuff are in sync, as they are right now. The Mets are warm, Peterson is the superior starter here and he and the Mets offer up some great value.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------