Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +117   BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +114 888Sport +115

Boston +110 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Jose Berrios (RHP - TOR) steps in to try and stop the bleeding and it’s a tall task for any pitcher. Berrios is a decent pitcher but every starter on Toronto is trying too hard and it’s not working. Kevin Gausman is decent too and he got whacked. Yusei Kikuchi is having a great year but he, too, was torched last start. Frankly, it matters not who is starting for the Blue Jays because every pitcher has a woe is me approach right now.

We can’t find a single reason to back off fading the Blue Jays here after they were swept at home by Texas while being outscored by a landslide. Toronto’s state of mind is that they are going to lose before they even take the field and that’s not the type of mindset you want to get behind when playing a favorite. The Jays are a damaged baseball team.

Brayan Bello (RHP - BOS) is a young pitcher on the upswing. He has been dominant at times when facing right-handed batters: 25% K%, 6% BB%, 19% K-BB%, 63% groundballs and an outstanding 3.29 xERA.  That extreme combination of strikeouts and groundballs gives him a higher ceiling than his surface numbers suggest, especially if he can find a similar formula against opposite-sided bats (15% K%, 51% grounders vL). Against a Toronto team that can’t hit a cow’s ass with a shovel right now, Bello has a great chance to dominate. Boston’s chances to win are greater than 50%, thus making this another must play against Toronto.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------