Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +127   BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +126 888Sport +125

Cleveland +125 over San Francisco

9:45 PM EST. Gavin Williams (RHP - CLE) is a top prospect who has looked the part at times in 2023. Take August, for example. He had a 3.62 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 27 innings that month, stats that had the backing of these impressive skills: 31% K%, 8% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 43% grounders and a 3.59 xERA. Only seven starting pitchers missed more bats than Williams did in August (15.0% swing and miss rate). His surface stats would have been even better if not for an inflated and unlucky 35% hit rate. Gavin Williams is a very live pooch today, as he owns a 1.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 26 K in 23 IP across five road starts. He takes on the Giants who have put up a MLB worst .656 OPS since the All-Star break and have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. 

Michael Lorenzen of the Phillies tossed a no-hitter back on August 9th, however it took him 124 pitches to do so. The effects of that extended outing have lingered, as each of his four starts since that remarkable feat have resulted in a disaster. In those four starts he has allowed 19 earned runs in just 21 IP, while putting up a weak 11/9 K/BB split. We mention that because 35-year-old Alex Cobb (RHP - SF) lasted only 58 pitches in his last time out. It was with good reason he threw limited pitches, as the start previously he tossed 131 pitches when he took a no-hitter to the brink. The effects of that heavy pitch load could easily linger here and it’s not like the dude is in good form. Much like Lorenzen, he’s an average pitcher with a lot of good luck on his side this year. The Guardians, in this spot, with this starting pitching matchup appear very live. 

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