Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +150  BET365 +155 Sportsinteraction   888Sport 

Kodai Senga +155 to Record the Win

8:10 PM EST. We’re looking to fade Dallas Keuchel (LHP - MIN) here and therefore, we could play the Mets at -115 (great value), the Mets -1½ +145 or Kodai Kenga (RHP - NYM) to get the win with a nice takeback of +155. Frankly, you could choose any of the three, as all of them hold great value.

Kenga has improved as the season has progressed. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in his last 12 starts. Senga has a 2.63 ERA and 3.36 xERA over those 12 starts, with 89 strikeouts over 72 innings for a 21.8% K-BB. Senga takes on a Twins team that is striking out 26% of the time versus RHP over the past month. Minnesota is incredibly beatable when they face a strikeout pitcher because its batters have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. There is no reason that Kenga can’t give the Mets at least five solid innings here to qualify for the W.

Dallas Keuchel is listed at +390 to get the W, which means chances are outstanding that he won’t get past five innings here or even make it out of the fifth. In 21 innings over his five starts, he has walked seven and struck out eight. Dude throws 87 MPH now with a swing and miss rate of 5.5%. Two weeks ago, Bob Barker could have got a hit off him. Dallas Keuchel sports an xERA of 5.94. Unless he gets very lucky, he’s going to give up runs because the ball is almost always in play. The Mets are scoring runs these days and figure to give Senga some strong run support here. Senga is in a very favorable matchup and should take care of the rest.

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