Houston @ Detroit
Detroit +154 over Houston

Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +154  BET365 +145 Sportsinteraction +150 888Sport +155

Detroit +154 over Houston

1:40 PM EST. Alex Faedo (RHP - DET) is a former first-round pick whose skills are starting to resemble his draft pedigree. He missed bats at a decent clip while pounding the strike zone early (68% first-pitch strike rate) and often (31% Ball%). He’s been especially good the past month with a rock-solid 2.87 ERA (3.85 xERA) and perhaps most importantly is that his confidence is starting to soar. Dude throws strikes and he gets people out.

We’ll fade Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) at prices like this until we go broke or die because he’s not worthy of it. A year after pulling off what might have been the best post-Tommy John surgery comeback ever, and certainly the best by any pitcher 36 or older, Verlander’s top-line numbers are good but spectacularly unremarkable. After missing the first month of the season due to a low-grade teres major strain, he’s pitched to a 3.19 ERA but an ugly 4.58 xERA with the big cause for concern the deterioration of his strikeout and walk rates. He’s dropped from last year’s 27.8% strikeout rate to 21%, making this the first time since 2015 that he hasn’t punched out more than a batter per inning. Meanwhile, he’s nearly doubled last year’s walk rate, from 4.4% to 8%, and his resultant drop in strikeout-to-walk differential is the majors’ second largest among pitchers with at least 150 innings last year and 70 this year; if you raise the latter threshold to 80 innings, he’s first. Some blow-ups are 100% on the horizon.

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Our Pick

Detroit +154 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.08)

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle