Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +124  BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +125

Pittsburgh +125 over Chicago

7:15 PM EST. Colin Selby (RHP - PIT) is listed as today’s starter for the Pirates but it’s a bullpen game to be sure. Selby has made zero starts in 28 appearances this year at Triple-A Indianapolis and zero starts in 8.1 innings since being called up on August 9th. He does have 13 K’s in 8.1 innings at this level and faced a season high 9 batters in his last appearance v the Cardinals. He’s not going to go more than an inning or two at the very most. Selby’s fastball sits 96-98 mph and he looks to blow it past hitters up in the zone. He pairs it with two above-average secondaries: a high-80s slider with sharp, downward movement that garnered a 48% chase rate against righties, and an 11-5 curveball with a shape that mimics the slider, only slower and looser, which helps keep batters off balance and enables him to pitch backwards. An extreme groundball pitcher in a small sample, he’s one of four or five relievers that the Pirates will use to get through this one.

This wager is a straight fade against Chicago’s lucky starter, Javier Assad (RHP - CHC). Assad’s 3.13 ERA is probably MLB’s most misleading surface stat. Since joining the rotation in August, Javier Assad is recording a horrible 6.7% K-BB% while benefiting from some incredible luck (212 BABIP and 87.6% left on base rate). Dude has struck out 53 batters in 72 frames while walking 30. His xERA is 5,47. His surface ERA doesn’t come with support from any of his skills. Without prospect pedigree on his side, odds are against this small-sample surface success carrying on much longer, thus, as the favorite in this range, on the road, Assad must be faded.

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