Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +185  BET365 +180 Sportsinteraction +180 888Sport +175

Washington +180 over Miami

6:40 PM EST. The Nationals starter here, Joan Adon (RHP -WAS) is not very relevant here because he’s no better or worse than several of Washington’s pitchers. The Nationals have been a tough out for 10 weeks or more and once again we find great value in getting behind them. Adon is not some washed up journeyman that has been around for years. Adon is 24-years-old and is considered to be one of the Nationals best pitching prospects, and while it looks like they probably won't be making a playoff push in 2024, they can afford to be patient with him. He’s risky to be sure but we care not, as this is a straight fade against the Marlins.  

The Marlins are having a decent season at 65-63 but in no way can this team be trusted to win at these prices. Miami is -45 in run differential, it is just 4-6 in its last 10 games and today’s starter, Braxton Garrett (LHP - MIA) is not good enough to better than a 2-1 favorite against a surging Nationals’ team. Garrett has allowed three earned runs or less in five straight starts with 21 strikeouts over 28 innings pitched. While Garrett has decent skills, signs of fatigue are present. He’s never pitched this many innings in a single season before at this level. His previous high was 88 and he’s already at 128. His swing and miss rate has dropped from 12.2 to 10% over his last five starts and his velocity is down to an average of 91.5 MPH. Those are all signs of fatigue. Dude is still throwing quality innings but he’s had periodic blowups and he’s running low on fuel. Aside from that, the Nats rank 7th best in the majors in several key offensive stats against left-handed pitchers. Price influences the play here but Washington is very worthy too.

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