Detroit @ Texas
Detroit +181 over Texas

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +181 BET365 +170 Sportsinteraction  +171 888Sport +170

Detroit +181 over Texas

8:05 PM EST. We’re not usually in favor of betting against teams like Texas, Tampa Bay and Atlanta for instance because they win so frequently but the value on this one is too great and we therefore must point it out in case you want to get on board.

Joey Wentz (RHP - DET) happens to be going for the Tigers here but frankly, it would not matter who was going for the Tigers. However, Wentz is 1-8 with an unlucky 6.72 ERA, which helps influence the price on Detroit but Wentz is not nearly as bad as that suggests. He has 26 K’s over his last 24 innings with a supported 13% swing and miss rate (SwK%). We’re not going to sugarcoat Wentz’s season. He’s shaky with an xERA of 4.85 but that’s still almost two full runs lower than his ugly looking surface ERA.

Truth be told, Dane Dunning (RHP - TEX) is one of the top-3 luckiest pitchers in all of baseball. Dane Dunning is also one of the worst starters in the entire league but you wouldn’t know that by his insane ERA of 2.76. If you didn’t believe that single game outcomes were highly luck-driven, all you need to do is look under the hood at Dane Dunning’s stats for proof. Dude has a horrible 41 K’s in 72 frames with one of MLB’s lowest SwK% at 6%. Over his last five starts covering 29 frames, Dunning has a putrid BB/K split of 11/15.

Dunning underwent season-ending surgery last year on Sept 26 to repair a torn labrum in right hip. He added a new "sweeper" this past spring, but it garnered fewer swings-and-misses and fewer grounders than his previous slider. Overall, his groundball rate continues to be best asset (47%) but it can't overcome his subpar K-BB% and bottom rung velocity 89 MPH) as seen in his horrid dominant start/disaster start splits over the years. That Dane Dunning has one loss in 17 appearances (9 starts) this year is beyond ludicrous.

None of Dunning’s pitches averages more than 90.6 mph. His strikeout rate, 16.6%, ranks 117th out of 122 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season. Indeed, the surface results look solid, but the underlying skills don't. That's usually a recipe for concern, so expect regression soon via the luck factors. It's a matter of when, not if, the ratios regress. With an xERA of 5.08, Dane Dunning is a -220 favorite and it’s a bet we must make. If you’re not on board, we get it but it’s worth pointing out that Dunning should be on your fade radar.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Detroit +181 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.62)

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle