St. Louis @ Cincinnati
St. Louis -1½ +125 over Cincinnati

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½  +124 BET365 -1½ +125 Sportsinteraction -1½ +125 888Sport -1½ +120

St. Louis -1½ +125 over Cincinnati

12:35 PM EST. There are pitcher props offered by many sportsbooks and we’re going to use that info to influence this choice. The pitcher prop that interests us is “Pitcher to record the Win”. You can bet “yes” or “no” and since pitchers usually don’t figure in the decision, one almost always has to spot a significant price on the “no”.

For instance, Logan Gilbert, who is starting for Seattle today against Oakland is +165 to get the win and -220 not to get it, despite Seattle being a -265 favorite. That is not an uncommon price for decent pitchers to get the win but what stuck out to us is that Miles Mikolas (RHP - St. L) of the Cardinals is the lowest price of any pitcher not to get the win that we have seen in weeks at -120. That’s almost unheard of and strongly suggests that Mikolas will get the win. There was a similar line last night in the Miami/Colorado game in which Sandy Alcantara was also -120 to not get the win. Miami went on to crush the Rockies, 10-2. Incidentally, Cincinnati’s starter today (RHP - CIN) is +330 to get the win and -450 not to, a similar price to Colorado’s starter last night.

Taking this one step further, the total this afternoon in Cincinnati’s hitter’s park is 10 so oddsmakers had to be very confident that Mikolas will last at least five innings here to record the win because for anyone that bets these props with regularity, Mikolas is a very low price to “not get the win”.

Here are some of today’s prices just to give you an idea of how strong the Cardinals wager is supposed to be.

Mikolas

Sherwood

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Our Pick

St. Louis -1½ +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)

Washington +134 over Seattle
Texas +143 over Minnesota
L.A. Angels +100 over Cleveland
San Diego +100 over N.Y. Yankees