Miami @ Colorado
Miami -1½ +128 over Colorado

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle   -1½ +128 BET365 -1½ +125 Sportsinteraction N/A 888Sport -1½ +125

Miami -1½ +125 over Colorado

8:40 PM EST. The twinge of roster-worthiness that Austin Gomber (LHP - COL) produced in 2021 all but disappeared last season. His main problem was another year of erosion in OPS vR+. You simply don't want to speculate on a lefty starter who struggles against RHB and has an xERA and K-BB% history like this no matter what park he's pitching in. Gomber has a mere 29 K’s in 44 frames with 18 walks issued. He’s a weak starter in a park that punishes starters of this nature frequently. If the Marlins don’t put up a crooked number here, so be it.

Then there’s Eury Pérez (RHP - MIA) the Marlins’ top prospect and one of the very best pitching prospects in the game that will make his third start at this level after his explosive rise to the major leagues. The 20-year-old, ultra-lanky 6’8’’ righthander rapidly blossomed into a pitching machine after signing with the Marlins in 2019, pitching as one of the youngest players at every level of the minor leagues. His raw stuff is readily apparent; he has never struck out less than 30% of batters at any level of the minors. He has also shown polished command despite his stature and long levers, repeating his delivery well and never walking more than 10% of batters. His robust 28.2% K-BB% at Double-A this season is demonstrative of his excellent and consistent track record of exceptional pitching to date. Moreover, he’s shown growth in his ability to induce ground balls over his minor league career, going from a 36.5% in 2021, to 41.2% in 2022, and now 51.6% in 31 innings at AA-Pensacola.

In his first two starts at this level, it’s been more of the same with a BB/K split of 3/13 over 10 innings to go along with his elite 2.70/3.13 ERA/xERA split. In terms of his arsenal, Pérez features a 4-pitch mix of a 95-97 four-seam, a slider and curveball with distinct shapes, and a nasty change-up he uses to put away batters with aplomb. All four pitches grade as potentially plus with the change-up ranking as his best. You can’t ask for much more out of a pitching prospect than what you get in Pérez. He has all the components to be a true ace and is in an organization that has demonstrated aptitude for developing pitchers. At this price against this team and pitcher, Perez and the Fish are worth a bet.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Miami -1½ +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle