Detroit @ Washington
Detroit +101 over Washington

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +101 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -105

Detroit +101 over Washington

4:05 PM EST. Patrick Corbin (LHP - WAS) keeps trying to reinvent his arsenal but to no avail. This year, he’s throwing more four-seamers at the expense of his sinker/slider. Batters are hitting .346 vs his fastball. He has a mere 31 K’s in 50 frames with a weak 8% swing and miss rate. If Corbin has a decent outing, it’s luck driven. If he gets whacked it’s because he’s supposed to. He’s a major pass when he’s favored.

Alex Faedo (RHP - DET) was Detroit’s 18th overall pick in the 2017 draft. He essentially missed all of 2020-2021 with an elbow injury that ultimately required January 2021 Tommy John surgery. He logged one quality start in 12 starts in his return, backed by below-average BB%, K%, and swing and miss rates before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. He was expected to be ready for spring but the Tigers decided to give him a bit more seasoning at Triple-AAA Toledo, where he made five starts this year and dominated before this promotion.

Faedo has two starts this year for the Tigers and looks better than ever. He has his confidence back to go along with just one walk issued and 8 K’s in 11 innings. Faedo’s fastball is averaging 94 MPH. His swing and miss rate was 16% in his last game. His outstanding control and the strikeout potential of his slider and change-up, along with his first-round pedigree, make him an intriguing underdog here and one worth playing.

Faedo is another pre-peak pitcher who struggled in 2022 (5.53 ERA, 1.64 WHIP in 53 IP). His skills would not seem to give him much room for improvement (18% K%, 10% BB%, 8% K-BB%, 31% GB%, 29 BPV). Still, Faedo's 26.1% CSW% was correlated with an expected command level that was four points higher than his actual one. If he can throw the ball over the plate more consistently (38% Ball%), Faedo could improve his command significantly



Our Pick

Detroit +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)