Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh +112 over Baltimore

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +112 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +111 888Sport +110

Pittsburgh +112 over Baltimore

1:35 PM EST. From 2016-20 Kyle Gibson (RHP - BAL) had just one season with a sub-4.80 ERA and sub-1.40 WHIP (3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 2018). In 2021, Gibson had a 3.71 ERA but last year his ERA was 5.05. This year, Gibson is returning profits to his backers with four wins and just two losses in eight starts while the O’s have won six of his eight starts. Gibson has delivered results but his performance doesn’t back it. Dude has one of the day’s worst xERA’s at 5.22. After playing for three teams over the past four years (Texas, Philadelphia and Minnesota), Gibson moves back to a pitcher-friendly park with the recent ballpark changes. His xERA hints at a streaming pitcher, though he's a one-pitch pitcher, with the slider being most effective. We’re not sure how Baltimore’s collection of below average starters are keeping teams at bay but it’s not going to last.

Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) is an interesting cat. He broke out in 2016, then stalled in subsequent upper-level seasons before adjusting his repertoire (he added a new slider) to miss more bats. After five years of negative value, dude has woken up and is now throwing some of the best stuff in the league. Through eight starts, he has six pure quality starts, which is at the top of the majors. He has an outstanding BB/K split of 14/56 in 50 innings. Keller's improved stuff helped him miss bats at an above-average rate in the first six weeks of the year for the first time in a long while. He’s also throwing strikes at a high volume and made adjustments against lefty bats. He's on his way towards a career year and with an elite ERA/xERA split, he and the Bucs are worthy of a wager here.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +112 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.24)

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle