Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +103 BET365 -105 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport -105

St. Louis +103 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. This is not a play on Adam Wainwright (RHP - ST. L). We’ve been knocking Wainwright’s skills for years, thus, we’re not about to come off that position. Wainwright just happens to be the Cardinals’ starter today, which is fine with us because if anyone else was starting, we would not get such a sweet price to beat James Paxton (LHP - BOS) and the Red Sox. This is a wager on St. Louis and a fade against Paxton.

Paxton has been activated from the 15-day injured list after recovering from a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, and will therefore make his season debut here. Paxton was unable to answer the bell after April 2021 Tommy John surgery then a torn lat in an August rehab start, his first, left 2022 stillborn. This oft-injured starter was more than viable in 2019, but has logged 400+ IL days and tossed just 21 innings since then and now he’s favored?

Paxton exercised his $4 million club option to return to Boston. That decision came two days after the Red Sox announced they had declined a two-year, $26 million club option on the lefty. Once the club option was declined, it became a player option. Dude signed a unique, complicated contract last December that guaranteed a $6 million salary in 2022 as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. That deal included the unique dual option for 2023. Paxton had to make a decision whether to return to the Red Sox at that rate or test the open market as a free agent. No surprise he chose guaranteed money and now the Red Sox are going to make him pitch. They’re paying him and ”he gonna pitch”.

James Paxton has made five starts at Triple-AAA this year and walked 16 batters in 21 frames while posting a 6.23 ERA/7.11 xERA split. The Red Sox would rather lose games than pay a guy millions to not pitch. We must try and take advantage.

Sherwood

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