NY Mets @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati +135 over NY Mets

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +135 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +131 888Sport +130

Cincinnati +135 over NY Mets

6:40 PM EST. Just days after losing Jacob deGrom, the Mets replaced him with the next best thing: the reigning American League Cy Young award. Verlander is coming off a season with a 1.75 ERA. His xERA was 3.2, but that’s not half bad, and throughout his career, he’s outpitched his xERA. Verlander will step in as the Mets 1A or 1B starter depending on how you rank him with Max Scherzer. He’ll now make his second start of the year after a five inning, five-hit, two runs performance against Detroit in which he was tagged for two jacks.

Last year, Verlander benefitted from hit%/strand% luck. A swing and miss rate drop hints at potential K% regression. His swing and miss rate v Detroit in start one was 10% but what really sticks out is his first start was his 21%/64% groundball/fly-ball split, which is why he surrendered two jacks. Verlander has always had a heavy fly-ball lean and today he’ll be pitching at one of the friendliest home-run parks in the majors. At some point 40-year old pitchers start to decline.

Hunter Greene (RHP - RHP) is outstanding. His swing and miss rate of 18% is tops in the league among qualified starters. He throws 98 MPH and has three outstanding offerings. He has an elite BB/K split of 12/47 after 34 innings. He has walked just six batters over his last 26 frames while whiffing 34. He had a great second half last year and is following it up with some of the best skills in the game. Even with an unlucky 41% hit rate, he still has an ERA of 3.74. His xERA is 3.14, which is also outstanding because xERA does take park factors into consideration. As a significant underdog at home to 40-year-old Justin Verlander and the Mets, Greene and the Reds are today’s best value play.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)

San Francisco +101 over Chicago