Washington @ Arizona
Washington +165 over Arizona

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +162 BET365 +165 Sportsinteraction +156 888Sport +165

Washington +165 over Arizona

9:40 PM EST. Both Josian Gray (RHP) and the Nationals are under the radar, which makes Washington very playable here at this price. The Nats are 6-4 over their past 10 games and are coming off three straight victories over the Cubs. Overall, they are a respectable 13-18 and Gray gives them their best chance to get a win. Dude has three pure quality starts in six tries. He has a 2.67 ERA with the support of a BB/K split of 13/31 in 34 frames. What’s impressive about that is he led the league in both walks and HRs allowed last year but had the raw stuff for much better. That raw stuff and the experience from making 28 starts last season at this level has combined to make Gray very effective. His swing and miss rate is progressively getting better with each start and is now up over 12.2%.

The second part of this wager is fading Merrill Kelley (RHP - ARI) and his misleading 3.06 ERA after six starts. Kelly epitomizes how much the ebbs and flows of hit and strand rates can make a marginal pitcher look good. His “breakout season” last year was entirely driven by a handful of favorable points of hit rate and strand rate. This year is much the same thus far. He’s walked 18 and struck out 30 in 32 frames for an awful BB/K ratio. His groundball rate last game in Colorado was 27%, where 33% of batted balls were line drives and most of them were right at people. His strand rate is high. His xERA is over 5. His groundball rate is getting worse every game and his hard hit ball rate is increasing. With below-average whiffs, his strikeouts will remain behind MLB pace. With the barrels he allowed and his career HR/F, it’s only a matter of time before some major implosions occur. Priced like he’s Zac Gallen, Kelly is one of the most overvalued and mediocre pitchers in the game. Regression is coming and it’s going to hit hard.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Washington +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

San Francisco +101 over Chicago