Boston @ Baltimore
Boston +116 over Baltimore

Posted on at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +116 BET365 +105 Sportsinteraction +110 888Sport +110

Boston +116 over Baltimore

1:05 PM EST. Tanner Houck (RHP - BOS) missed most of the final two months last year with a spinal disc issue that required September surgery. He was cleared for offseason work, so we were expecting a full return to health. Before the injury, he was effective in a swingman role and he’s getting stronger by the start this year. Houck is routinely and effortlessly throwing 94 MPH heat. His swing and miss rate has risen with each passing start, which is another great indication that he’s getting stronger. His swing and miss rate last game was 16.7%, up from 13.5% the previous game and 13% two starts ago. An elite 59% groundball rate and also elite 2.90 xERA completes this outstanding under the hood/under the radar profile.

We missed the Red Sox yesterday and aren’t happy about it but we must continue to attack the Orioles weak pitching staff. Through four games, Tyler Wells (RHP - BAL) has posted a 2.70 ERA covering 23 innings. Over that span, he has walked just two batters while striking out 16. Wells is a decent control pitcher supported by marginal skills otherwise his success is almost always driven by good fortune. Dude has an incredibly lucky BABIP of .175 this year. That’s so far off the charts that it's not even on the charts. A correction to his surface stats will inevitably come calling and we’ll gladly put that to the test here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Our Pick

Boston +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)

San Francisco +101 over Chicago